Texas wins the lottery!

With the loophole-ridden, convoluted tax system we have here in Texas, hoping to come up with the right amount of money for the state budget can be considered somewhat of a game of chance.

Well, according to Texas State Comptroller Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn (whew!), as reported in the Houston Chronicle:

Strayhorn: Lawmakers have $8.2 billion surplus

So, ya know, apparently we're kinda rollin' in it! Talk about a gift to the Texas Legislature! But:

Strayhorn, like Perry, said it would be a mistake for legislators to simply use the surplus to pay for property tax cuts and then go home. But the fact that she nearly doubled the surplus from her previous forecast of $4.3 billion is likely to increase the temptation of many Republican lawmakers to do just that.

As the article mentions, though, the Lege is somewhat limited in what areas of school finance and proprety taxes they will be allowed to address:

The governor issued a proclamation today, officially limiting the session's agenda to cutting school property taxes, the higher state taxes he has proposed and appropriations to the Texas Education Agency.

In other words, appraisal tax caps are again off the table - for now. (*sigh*)

The Umpire's call? My initial prediction (subject to change based on facts and/or whim) is that the Lege will:

1. Tweak Perry's recommended tax "enchancements" but otherwise adopt them almost as-presented.
2. They will use the surplus to "fund" the "property tax reduction" (ignoring the fact that the lack of caps will negate the "tax reduction" in just 2-4 years)
3. Declare victory and go home thinking that they have performed some great and noble service for the future of Texas.

Arrgh!